For many Americans this meant an immediate gain, by throwing the rule book aside Trump created jobs that environmental laws previously said couldn't be done. Trump built his presidency around putting the economy first, and serious questions are being asked of him, esecially now that his model has ended up on the Covid rocks. Despite the pandemic costing America close to 100,000 lives thus far, the people who follow his banner are willing to riot just to support an 'Economy First' fantasy, a strategy that was never good for America to begin with.
Facing off against Trump is Joe Biden, a liberal centrist who's dedicated his life to politics and previously served as vice President to Barrack Obama. Four years ago Biden would have appeared like a moderate but the political pendulum has swung so far from the centre that when you start talking about clean energy, ending gun violence, and strengthening unions you end up sounding a little radical. It appears that Biden simply wants to put the world back to the way it used to be, and if that works maybe he can go further in a second term.
Winning office is within touching distance for Biden, as he might only need to convert three states blue to win 2020, and this is entirely possible. Three states won by Trump in 2016 are now up for grabs in 2020, these are Michigan Pennsylvania, & Arizona, coloured blue here and circled yellow. The other swing states open to contest are Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida. These states are shaded in bronze on the map, but the former three are more likely to vote for Joe and here's why.
In August 2016 Trump asked a crowd in Dimondale, Michigan "What have you got to lose?". Targeting black Americans with lucky dip politics he managed to win a state that had voted Democrat since 1992. It's only now people in Michigan are realising what they had to lose, thousands of manufacturing jobs, health care, and a once thriving agriculture sector that lost millions in a tech driven trade war with China.
The trade war resulted in Government subsidising Michigan farmers $193 million to make up for lost profits. Across America the total cost of these subsidies was $12 billion. Repealing Obama Care has meant higher health insurance premiums for 4.3 million voters in Michigan, to say that they are angry is an understatement. Michigan feels let down by Trump and it's no surprise that even Fox News is predicting Joe Biden to win back the former blue stronghold, especially with a campaign that promises to look after water infrastructure, agriculture, and large transformational projects.
Joe Biden was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania in 1943. He was only 10 when his family moved to Delaware after his father struggled to find work, but he's still able to recall his roots and the home crowd love hearing him say he's running for everyone he grew up with.
Biden has targeted Pennsylvania as the key battleground state in election 2020, he's opened his campaign headquarters in Philadelphia and he's openly saying that he cannot win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania. His campaign is about the forgotten middle class and he's promising voters here hundreds of permanent jobs if he's elected.
You'll hear Joe talk a lot about strengthening Worker's Unions on his path to winning Pennsylvania, a cornerstone of his campaign is about Collective Bargaining. Perhaps the support of union leaders will be a fitting end to the billionaire president who left Pennsylvanian workers behind.
Trump shocked America in 2016 becoming the first Republican presidential nominee to win Pennsylvania since 1988, promising to protect the coal mines and reboot it's manufacturing industry. However the global trend towards renewables and the availability of gas as a cheaper alternative means more coal plants have closed under Trump than under Obama. Since becoming president Western Pennsylvania has also lost a score of manufacturing jobs thanks to cutbacks from companies like 3M, General Motors, and American Steel. More broken promises which have resulted in people leaving their homes to find work, which is something that Biden will be able to tap into and recover another once blue state on his way to becoming president.
This is a state Republicans have won in the last five elections, Bill Clinton the last Democrat to win here in 1996, but latinos make up a quarter of eligible voters in Arizona and Trump has alienated himself from many with border policies like separating immigrant children from their parents and putting them in cages.
This has radicalised the Latino voter who has felt under attack for the last four years, from Trump they've learned that things can get marginally better or significantly worse. This has resulted in a lot of grassroots activism for the Democratic party, something that has already produced results, Kirsten Sinema's securing a senate seat for the Democratic party in 2018, their first in twenty years. Having a base like this means Biden has a network to lean on when he goes to Arizona.
Another growing demographic in Arizona has been the college educated techies. Phoenix is the new Silicon Valley, becoming a major hot spot for tech companies which has created an influx of young liberal minded voters willing to support more progressive politicians. This has led to the rise of anti-Trump sentiment in places like Maricopa county.
With the changing demographics in this sun belt state it's no wonder that early polls have Biden so far ahead in the 2020 race. These trends along with the momentum he gained by winning the primary ahead of Bernie Sanders is enough to consider presidential victory out of Arizona. Additional success in Wisconsin, North Carolina, or Florida would result in a landslide result for normality.